The Emperor’s Startling Discovery

In the winter of his reign, Emperor Qin Shi Huang returned from Fuyang to summon his chancellor Li Si for an urgent audience. The emperor proposed a radical policy shift: to halt the conscription of laborers from distant regions for the two massive imperial projects – the Lishan Mausoleum and the Great Wall. Instead, he suggested using only local Qin people from Neishi Commandery for the mausoleum and nearby counties for the wall construction, exempting the central plains and former Chu territories from further corvée labor.

When the emperor asked Li Si’s opinion on this proposal, the chancellor’s prolonged silence and eventual negative response shocked the ruler. Li Si revealed a demographic crisis that had escaped the emperor’s notice – the original Qin population in the Guanzhong heartland had dwindled to barely 20% of the region’s inhabitants, with only about one million remaining, mostly the elderly, women, and children. The other 80% – some four million people – were immigrants from the conquered six eastern states.

The Demographic Collapse of the Qin Core

Li Si’s detailed explanation painted a grim picture of demographic transformation. From the late reign of King Zhaoxiang, the original Qin population numbered about ten million, with three million in the Guanzhong core region. The constant wars of unification had drained this population:

– Nearly one million Qin men served in the military at peak times
– 300,000 Qin soldiers perished during the unification wars
– 300,000 Qin people were sent to conquer southern regions
– Multiple northern border garrisons and population exchanges further depleted numbers

The cumulative effect was the dispersal of over two million original Qin people from their homeland. Li Si warned that concentrating eastern state laborers at Lishan could create a dangerous situation, citing the recent rebellion led by Qing Bu as precedent.

The Emperor’s Existential Crisis

This revelation struck Qin Shi Huang like a thunderbolt. For the first time, the mighty emperor felt genuine fear creeping into his bones. The Qin people – the martial backbone that had propelled his state from nomadic tribe to regional power to unifier of China – were disappearing from their ancestral lands. The implications were terrifying: without this loyal core population, how could the Qin dynasty maintain control if rebellion erupted?

The emperor fell into deep contemplation, realizing he had committed a strategic blunder by exhausting his most reliable human resources in expansion while neglecting to preserve a strong home base. He compared himself unfavorably to Bai Qi, the brilliant general who had preserved Qin’s strength even after the massive Battle of Changping.

The Chancellor’s Calculated Silence

The emperor grew suspicious of why Li Si had never raised this critical issue before. Their relationship had been remarkably harmonious for over twenty years, with Li Si always aligning perfectly with imperial policies. This very consistency now seemed suspect – was the chancellor’s agreement always genuine, or was it calculated political maneuvering? The emperor recalled the dying words of general Wang Ben: “Chancellor Li Si maneuvers too much, thinks too much of himself.”

Yet Qin Shi Huang couldn’t conclusively determine Li Si’s motives. The chancellor had never supported obvious mistakes (like the failed Chu campaign led by Li Xin), nor had he endorsed certain controversial policies (like the persecution of the queen dowager’s enemies). Their alignment had always been on policies later proven correct. This ambiguity left the emperor deeply unsettled.

The Strategic Reassessment

Three days later, the emperor met again with Li Si, this time in a more relaxed setting by a warm brazier during heavy snowfall. Avoiding their previous tense discussion, Qin Shi Huang instead revealed plans for a major inspection tour the following spring – what would become his final journey across the empire.

The emperor spoke of multiple objectives:
– Assessing the situation in the southeast
– Rooting out counter-revolutionary elements
– Potentially regrouping the scattered Qin populations
– Inspecting the monumental Great Wall

Significantly, when Li Si suggested including Crown Prince Fusu in the tour, the emperor brusquely refused, still angry at his eldest son’s “naive” opposition to certain policies like the persecution of scholars. Yet privately, Qin Shi Huang was determined to protect Fusu and general Meng Tian from coming political storms.

The Psychological Toll

Li Si left the palace deeply troubled by the emperor’s changing demeanor. The chancellor sensed subtle but significant shifts in Qin Shi Huang’s behavior – prolonged silences, unexpected policy proposals, and that unprecedented moment when the emperor had simply walked away from their meeting.

These changes raised alarming questions for Li Si:
– Was the emperor reconsidering fundamental Qin policies?
– If moving toward Fusu’s more moderate positions, what would this mean for Li Si’s legacy?
– As chief architect and implementer of Qin policies, would he bear the blame for any perceived failures?

The chancellor realized with dread that if the political winds shifted, he could face the same fate as Shang Yang – execution despite monumental achievements.

The Human Side of Empire

In a rare moment of personal reflection, the emperor found solace in the company of his eighteenth son, Huhai. The simple-minded but cheerful prince provided comic relief during morning sword practice in the snow-covered poplar grove. Unlike the serious, principled Fusu, Huhai represented uncomplicated affection for the overburdened ruler.

This interlude highlighted the emperor’s strained family relations. The abolition of the empress system and elimination of distinctions between primary and secondary wives had created后宫 chaos while allowing unusual openness. Qin Shi Huang’s numerous children (over twenty sons and ten daughters) received little paternal attention, with only Fusu and Huhai standing out in his memory.

The Looming Final Journey

As he returned to his duties, the emperor resolved to make his upcoming inspection tour count. This would be no ordinary procession but a carefully orchestrated political maneuver to:
– Stabilize the northern frontier with the Xiongnu
– Secure Fusu and Meng Tian’s position
– Survey the empire’s true condition
– Suppress growing counter-revolutionary sentiments

The snow-covered poplars stood witness as Qin Shi Huang steeled himself for what would become his final attempt to secure the Qin dynasty’s future – a journey from which he would never return, leaving behind an empire on the brink of monumental change.

The demographic revelation about the disappearing Qin people had shaken the emperor to his core, forcing a reckoning with the unintended consequences of his world-changing ambitions. In that winter of discontent, the First Emperor began to glimpse the fragility of even the mightiest human constructions – whether walls of earth or systems of power.