The Doctrine of Chance in Liu Bowen’s Thought

Liu Bowen (1311–1375), a renowned strategist and philosopher of China’s late Yuan and early Ming dynasties, proposed a compelling theory of life’s unpredictability: the doctrine of chance. He argued that human existence is shaped by random, uncontrollable events rather than grand designs. To illustrate this, he recounted the ancient parable “Weak Lu Wine Leads to the Siege of Handan.”

This tale exists in two versions, both revealing how minor incidents can trigger catastrophic consequences. In the first, the King of Chu, insulted by the weak wine offered by the Duke of Lu, launched a punitive campaign. This distraction allowed the state of Wei to besiege Zhao’s capital, Handan—unrelated to the original dispute. The second version adds a twist: corrupt officials swapped Lu’s weak wine with Zhao’s, framing Zhao for the offense. Either way, Zhao suffered for a triviality beyond its control.

Liu Bowen used this to underscore life’s fragility. He dismissed fatalism—the idea that all events are preordained—yet acknowledged that some “accidents” feel inevitable. His stance resonated with both Eastern and Western thought, from Chinese beliefs in “ming” (destiny) to La Rochefoucauld’s observation that luck dictates judgments of human actions.

The Fickleness of Human Allegiances

Liu Bowen’s Yu Li Zi further explores societal volatility through the lens of General Lian Po’s life. After Lian Po was replaced by the inexperienced Zhao Kuo, his retinue abandoned him—only to return when he was reinstated after Zhao’s disastrous defeat at Changping. The general’s scorn for their opportunism was met with blunt pragmatism: “We follow power. This is universal logic.”

This episode reflects Liu Bowen’s cynical realism. He advised accepting life’s fluctuations: “Enjoy prosperity; endure adversity. Resist change unless necessary.” His fable of an eagle transformed into a pheasant drove this home—the bird’s attempt to assert its former majesty ended in humiliation. Adaptation, not defiance, was survival.

Emperor Toghon Temür: A Study in Contradictions

Liu Bowen’s assessment of Yuan China’s last ruler, Toghon Temür (Emperor Shun), reveals a ruler as paradoxical as his era.

### The Polymath Monarch
A Renaissance man before the term existed, Shun designed intricate water clocks, dragon boats with mechanized movements, and architectural marvels, earning the moniker “Lu Ban Emperor” for his craftsmanship. He even predicted the death of a general through astrological readings.

### The Decadent Sovereign
Yet his private life was scandalous. Influenced by Tibetan monks, he indulged in esoteric rituals and aphrodisiac-fueled orgies, dubbing his pleasure chamber “The Room of Unobstructed Affairs.” His neglect of governance amid natural disasters—floods, locusts, and the Yellow River’s breach—sparked rebellions like the Red Turban Movement.

### The Delusional Leader
Like Chen Shubao, the “Carefree Emperor” of Chen Dynasty who dismissed invading Sui armies until his capture, Shun ignored crises. When rebels threatened, he quipped: “Didn’t they read history? Our ancestors crushed the Southern Song’s armies. These bandits are nothing.” Liu Bowen’s poem “The Carefree Have Sorrow” mocked this willful blindness.

Legacy: Liu Bowen’s Timeless Warnings

Liu Bowen’s works transcend his 14th-century context, offering enduring insights:
1. The Illusion of Control: Modern societies still grapple with “black swan” events—unpredictable disruptions like pandemics or financial crashes—proving his doctrine of chance relevant.
2. Power and Peril: His tales of shifting loyalties mirror today’s political and corporate climbers, highlighting how little human nature changes.
3. Leadership Lessons: Shun’s blend of brilliance and folly serves as a cautionary tale for leaders who prioritize personal indulgence over public duty.

Ultimately, Liu Bowen’s philosophy urges humility: recognize life’s randomness, adapt to its tides, and never mistake temporary calm for perpetual safety. In an age of upheaval—or complacency—his voice remains unnervingly prescient.