A Monarch’s Paranoia and the Weight of Empire

In the early hours of a mist-shrouded morning in 1398, the aging Ming Emperor Zhu Yuanzhang—founder of one of China’s most enduring dynasties—made a decision he would instantly regret. What began as a routine summons for his fourth son, Zhu Di (the future Yongle Emperor), unraveled into a revealing episode of imperial insecurity, political theater, and the fragile loyalties binding the Ming court. This moment, obscured by historical fog, exposes the contradictions of a ruler who built his empire on bloodshed yet feared his own legacy would collapse under betrayal.

The Fractured Court: Zhu Yuanzhang’s Twilight Years

By the 1390s, the Hongwu Emperor’s reign was shadowed by tragedy and suspicion. The death of his heir, Crown Prince Zhu Biao, in 1392 had shattered his succession plans, leaving the throne to his young grandson, Zhu Yunwen. The emperor’s response was characteristically brutal: purges of potential threats, including the executions of tens of thousands during the Hu Weiyong and Lan Yu cases. Yet paranoia lingered.

Zhu Yuanzhang’s court was a graveyard of former allies. Generals like Xu Da and Lan Yu, once instrumental in founding the Ming, had been eliminated. Only a handful of trusted commanders remained—among them Geng Bingwen, the “Great Wall” of defensive warfare, and Guo Ying, a lifelong bodyguard whose scarred back bore witness to his loyalty. That morning, these two men would become unwitting players in the emperor’s last gamble to control the future.

The Aborted Summons: A Reversal in the Mist

The original order was straightforward: summon Zhu Di to Nanjing. But as fog thickened outside the palace, so did the emperor’s doubts. Zhu Di, stationed in Beijing, commanded the empire’s strongest armies and had grown alarmingly popular. Recalling him risked either rebellion or exposing the throne’s weakness. In a sudden pivot, Zhu Yuanzhang rescinded the command, replacing it with a call for Geng and Guo—a move historian Frederick Mote interprets as “the hesitation of a tyrant who no longer trusts his own instincts.”

The Theater of Loyalty: Tears, Tea, and Power

What followed was a masterclass in psychological manipulation. Zhu Yuanzhang confronted Guo Ying over allegations of illegal private militias and executions—crimes he’d previously ignored. The scene climaxed with Guo baring his battle scars, reducing both men to tears. When Geng arrived, he famously forced himself to weep, later admitting in memoirs: “I thought of all the flayed corpses I’d seen. Then the tears came.”

The emperor’s performative grief masked a deadly calculus. By alternating between threats and sentimental appeals, he tested their allegiance to his grandson. The offering of personalized teas—a detail preserved in the Veritable Records of Ming—was no kindness. In a court where poisoned cups were routine, the gesture carried chilling ambiguity.

The Unspoken Fear: Zhu Di and the “Swallow Prophecy”

Central to the discussion was Liu Bowen’s cryptic prophecy: “When the swallow flies, the empire will change hands.” Zhu Yuanzhang openly speculated that the “swallow” (燕 Yan) referred to Zhu Di, Prince of Yan. Geng and Guo dismissed this as superstition, but their arguments revealed deeper tensions:

– Geng’s Pragmatism: “If swallows migrate south, must princes rebel?”
– Guo’s Loyalty: “Zhu Di is your son. What profit is there in treason?”

Their pushback forced the emperor to retreat. As historian Timothy Brook notes, “This was the moment Zhu Yuanzhang realized his purges had left him without tools to control his own family.”

The Reluctant Compromise: A Fragile Succession Plan

With no consensus, the emperor assigned last-ditch roles:
– Geng Bingwen as Supreme Commander, guarding northern approaches.
– Guo Ying controlling the capital’s defenses.

Both understood the irony. As Guo later wrote: “We were the leftovers of a feast consumed by the emperor’s own hunger.” Their appointments were stopgaps, not solutions.

Legacy: The Storm After the Calm

Zhu Yuanzhang died months later. Within a year, Zhu Di launched the Jingnan Campaign, toppling Zhu Yunwen. Geng, despite his famed defensive prowess, fell at the Battle of Zhengzhou. Guo, sidelined by the new regime, died in obscurity.

The foggy morning’s aborted decision thus marked a pivot in Ming history. It revealed:
1. The Limits of Tyranny: Even Zhu Yuanzhang’s ruthlessness couldn’t eliminate the succession crisis.
2. The Cost of Purges: By liquidating competent officials, the emperor left his grandson vulnerable.
3. Propaganda’s Power: Zhu Di later weaponized the “swallow” prophecy to legitimize his rule.

Today, the episode endures as a case study in how fear shapes empires—and how even the mightiest rulers can be paralyzed by the futures they create.