The Strategic Landscape After the Yuan Brothers’ Fall

With the heads of the Yuan brothers secured, Cao Cao turned his ambitions southward. The conquest of Liu Biao in Jing Province and Sun Quan in Eastern Wu would bring him tantalizingly close to unifying the fractured Han Empire. Only minor warlords in the northwest and Liu Zhang of Yi Province remained as obstacles.

Returning triumphantly to Ye after pacifying the northeast, Cao Cao ordered the construction of the massive Xuanwu Lake north of the city—a training ground for his nascent navy. Rivers like the Yangtze and its tributaries would dominate southern battlefields, yet Cao Cao’s forces lacked naval experience. This artificial lake became a crucible for preparing his troops for aquatic warfare.

News of these preparations, relayed by southern spies, reached both Liu Biao and Sun Quan. But while Sun Quan strategized, Jing Province teetered on the brink of collapse due to internal strife.

The Crisis in Jing Province: A House Divided

Liu Biao, gravely ill and embroiled in a succession dispute, could scarcely focus on external threats. His two sons—Liu Qi, the elder, and Liu Cong, the younger—vied for power. Liu Cong, backed by his mother’s influential Cai clan, held the upper hand. The Cai family’s support had been instrumental in Liu Biao’s rise, and their dominance now fueled factional infighting.

Many foresaw disaster. “With brothers at each other’s throats, Jing is doomed,” observers muttered. Defections followed, including the departure of Gan Ning, a Sichuanese warrior leading 800 fierce Tongke tribesmen. Blocked for three years by Huang Zu, Liu Biao’s general at Xiakou, Gan Ning eventually escaped to join Sun Quan.

Sun Quan’s Calculated Move: The Xiakou Campaign

When Sun Quan learned of Jing’s disarray, he saw both peril and opportunity. A weak Jing Province might surrender to Cao Cao without resistance, bolstering the northern warlord’s forces. To preempt this, Sun Quan needed to weaken Jing’s military capacity—and settle an old score.

Huang Zu, the general who had killed Sun Quan’s father, Sun Jian, still held Xiakou. Under Gan Ning’s guidance—his intimate knowledge of Xiakou’s defenses proved invaluable—Sun Quan’s forces, led by the brilliant general Lü Meng, crushed Huang Zu’s army. With no reinforcements from Jing’s distracted leadership, Xiakou fell, expanding Sun Quan’s control over the Wuhan region.

Liu Qi’s Dilemma and Zhuge Liang’s Counsel

Meanwhile, Liu Qi, sidelined by his brother’s faction, faced existential danger. Seeking advice from Zhuge Liang—the renowned strategist serving Liu Bei—he staged a dramatic encounter atop a secluded tower. “I am trapped between heaven and earth,” Liu Qi pleaded. Zhuge Liang responded with a historical parable:

“Shen Sheng remained and died; Chong Er fled and lived.”

The reference to ancient Jin princes underscored his advice: Liu Qi must leave Xiangyang. Appointed as Jiangxia’s governor—a hollow title after Xiakou’s fall—he departed with 10,000 troops. His exit eased tensions in Jing but left the province vulnerable.

The Fall of Jing and Liu Bei’s Peril

Liu Biao’s death in 208 CE triggered a crisis. At a council in Xiangyang, officials like Kuai Yue and Fu Xun argued for surrender to Cao Cao, citing his control of the emperor and overwhelming force. Even Liu Cong’s naive suggestion to rely on Liu Bei was dismissed. The decision was ruthless: abandon Liu Bei to face Cao Cao alone, ensuring a more “valuable” surrender.

Warned by spies, Liu Bei confronted annihilation. Zhuge Liang proposed a bold escape: seize Jing’s forces, flee south, and ally with Sun Quan. But Liu Bei refused to harm Liu Cong, honoring his deathbed promise to Liu Biao. Instead, he prepared for a desperate retreat—a decision that would shape the coming Battle of Red Cliffs.

Cultural and Strategic Implications

This period highlights the brutal pragmatism of the era. Alliances shifted like sand, and familial bonds often crumbled under political pressure. Sun Quan’s attack on Xiakou, framed as revenge, masked a strategic gambit to check Cao Cao. Meanwhile, Zhuge Liang’s counsel to Liu Qi echoed classical Chinese philosophy, blending historical precedent with realpolitik.

Legacy: The Road to Red Cliffs

Cao Cao’s southern campaign, Jing Province’s collapse, and Liu Bei’s flight set the stage for one of history’s most famous battles. The eventual Sun-Liu alliance at Red Cliffs would defy Cao Cao’s momentum, cementing the Three Kingdoms’ tripartite division.

For modern readers, this saga offers timeless lessons: the cost of division, the art of strategic retreat, and the enduring power of loyalty—even in the face of betrayal. The echoes of 208 CE still resonate in discussions of leadership and survival against overwhelming odds.