A Letter from the Brink of Revolution

In early 1867, as Japan stood at the precipice of monumental change, a young samurai named Ito Hirobumi penned a remarkable letter to his mentor Kido Takayoshi. This correspondence, written on the fifth day of the first month of Keio 3, reveals not only the turbulent political landscape of late Tokugawa Japan but also the emerging global perspective of one of Japan’s future architects. Stationed in Shimonoseki, Ito expressed deep concern about developments in Kyoto, where the shogunate’s power was visibly crumbling. His words would prove prophetic, capturing the essence of the transformation about to sweep through Japanese society.

Ito reported hearing disturbing news from American naval officers whose ship had docked in Shimonoseki en route from Hyogo to Nagasaki. According to these foreign sources, Tokugawa Yoshinobu, the fifteenth Tokugawa shogun, had declared he would never resign his position. Instead, Yoshinobu claimed he sought to reform Japan’s political system and had summoned regional lords to Kyoto for consultation. Yet only three or four domain leaders had responded to this call, revealing the shogunate’s diminished authority. Yoshinobu apparently concluded that meaningful reform required him to consolidate even greater power, a position that struck Ito as both desperate and misguided.

The American Inspiration and Japanese Discontent

What makes Ito’s letter particularly extraordinary is his thoughtful comparison between Japan’s political stagnation and the American experience. He noted rumors that the Kaga domain had mobilized substantial forces near Osaka to support the weakening shogunate. While acknowledging Kaga’s historical weakness, Ito observed that few Japanese truly supported the imperial cause—most simply aligned themselves with whichever side seemed stronger. This opportunistic behavior disgusted him, especially as Japan faced what he called a “national crisis of survival.”

Ito then turned his gaze across the Pacific, drawing explicit parallels to the American Revolution. He marveled at how American colonists, including those without formal military training, had united to defeat the powerful British Empire. This achievement, he argued, stemmed from every citizen’s willingness to sacrifice for their nation’s independence, creating the foundation for America’s subsequent strength. The contrast with Japan could not have been starker: while Americans had built a nation through collective purpose, Japanese subjects who had enjoyed imperial benevolence for millennia now forgot this “great debt” and instead curried favor with the weakening shogunate.

Beyond Domain Loyalty: A New National Consciousness

Perhaps most significantly, Ito’s letter demonstrates his evolving political philosophy. More than a year before the decisive battles at Toba and Fushima would topple the Tokugawa regime, Ito had already moved beyond narrow domain loyalty. He criticized his fellow Choshu compatriots for their persistent animosity toward the Tokugawa family, tracing this bitterness back to the Battle of Sekigahara in 1600. While acknowledging that emphasizing this historical grievance might strengthen bonds between Choshu lords and their retainers, Ito worried it would undermine broader political consensus.

Ito argued that precisely because so few Japanese supported the imperial cause, advocates for change must emphasize “fair and proper debate” rather than regional resentments. This remarkable insight reveals a political thinker transitioning from domain-centric thinking to national consciousness. His vision was coalescing around a modern state centered on the emperor rather than regional power structures—a conception that would eventually define the Meiji Restoration.

The Making of a Modernizer

Ito’s extraordinary perspective did not emerge from isolation. His letter reveals several formative experiences that shaped his worldview. First, his ability to gather intelligence from American naval officers demonstrates both improving English skills and unusual confidence in engaging with foreigners. At a time when many Japanese still viewed Westerners with suspicion or hostility, Ito actively sought them out for information and perspective.

This comfort with foreign interaction proved crucial to his understanding of international affairs. His accurate comprehension of the American Revolution’s significance—seeing it not merely as a military conflict but as a nation-building project—stemmed directly from these cross-cultural exchanges. Even in these early stages, Ito recognized that meaningful reform in Japan would require learning from Western history and contemporary developments, particularly the need to foster mature national consciousness among Japanese citizens.

Recognition and Responsibility

The historical record shows that Ito’s abilities did not go unnoticed. On March 9, 1867, he was promoted from “junior samurai status” to “samurai retainer,” placing him one step away from full samurai rank. This recognition acknowledged both his commitment to the imperial cause since his days studying with Yoshida Shoin and his continued political activities. Significantly, he received this promotion alongside three other future leaders: Shinagawa Saburo , and one other compatriot.

Just nine days after this promotion, Ito received his most significant assignment yet: a mission to Kyoto to gather intelligence on developments in the Kansai region the previous spring, and their daughter Sadako had been born at the end of 1866. The family lived in Shimonoseki, but Ito had returned to Hagi to care for his ailing mother from late 1866 through early 1867. In a letter to his father Juzo on March 25, he assured him that Sadako was healthy and promised to return within a month, suggesting the personal sacrifices his political work demanded.

The Intelligence Mission to Kyoto

Ito’s intelligence mission had three primary objectives: monitoring the shogunate’s movements, determining whether Satsuma domain would ally with Choshu against the Tokugawa, and persuading Satsuma to take action against the regime. Before departing, he wrote to Kido Takayoshi expressing such enthusiasm that Kido felt compelled to warn him against reckless behavior. In his March 26 reply, Ito assured his mentor he would exercise caution—a telling exchange that reveals both Ito’s zeal and Kido’s role as his political guardian.

Departing Shimonoseki on March 27, Ito reached Kyoto on April 13, where he stayed with Shinagawa Mirijiro, who had been hiding at the Satsuma residence since the previous year. During his brief stay, Ito met with several key figures, including Nakaoka Shintaro , Okubo Toshimichi of Satsuma, and Kuroda Kiyotaka. These meetings allowed him to assess the relationship between the imperial court and shogunate while gauging various domains’ political orientations. He left Kyoto on April 29, returning to Yamaguchi with valuable intelligence.

Tragically, on April 14—while Ito was still in Kyoto—his beloved friend and mentor Takasugi Shinsaku died of tuberculosis at just twenty-seven. The loss of this brilliant military leader who had pioneered modern militia forces in Japan undoubtedly affected Ito deeply, though historical records do not preserve his immediate reaction.

The Historical Significance of Ito’s Perspective

Ito’s 1867 letter and subsequent intelligence mission reveal several crucial aspects of Japan’s transformation. First, they demonstrate how some reform-minded samurai were already envisioning a post-shogunate Japan more than a year before the Meiji Restoration formally began. Ito’s thinking had progressed beyond simply replacing Tokugawa rule with imperial authority—he was contemplating the foundations of a modern nation-state.

Second, Ito’s American references highlight how international models influenced Japanese reformers. His understanding of the United States went beyond superficial appreciation of military or economic power; he grasped the philosophical underpinnings of American nation-building and saw relevant lessons for Japan. This perspective would characterize his approach throughout the Meiji period, as he helped draft Japan’s constitution along partly Western models while adapting them to Japanese circumstances.

Third, Ito’s mission illustrates the practical challenges of political transformation. Intelligence gathering across domain boundaries required considerable personal risk, linguistic skill, and diplomatic finesse. The fact that Choshu sent someone of Ito’s relatively junior rank on such a sensitive mission suggests both the domain’s limited resources and their recognition of his unusual abilities.

From Insight to Implementation

The historical significance of Ito’s early thinking becomes clearer when viewed alongside his subsequent career. His 1867 concerns about excessive domain loyalty would later inform his efforts to create a centralized national government. His appreciation for American political development would influence constitutional debates, though he ultimately looked more to European models. His comfort with foreign engagement would make him a natural choice for diplomatic missions, including Japan’s first embassy to the United States and Europe in 1871–1873.

Most importantly, Ito’s transition from domain loyalist to nationalist visionary exemplifies a broader pattern among Meiji reformers. Their ability to reimagine Japan’s political community beyond traditional affiliations proved crucial to building a modern state capable of resisting Western imperialism. While Ito would later become a controversial figure, particularly regarding his approach to foreign expansion, his early contributions to Japan’s transformation remain historically significant.

Legacy of a Vision

Ito Hirobumi’s 1867 letter thus represents more than personal correspondence—it captures a moment of political imagination that would help reshape a nation. His ability to synthesize intelligence from American sources, critique Japan’s political culture, and envision an alternative future demonstrates the conceptual breakthrough that made the Meiji transformation possible. While historical attention often focuses on dramatic events like battles and political declarations, Ito’s letter reminds us that profound change begins with new ways of thinking.

The modern Japanese state that emerged from the Meiji Restoration bore the imprint of many thinkers and actors, but Ito’s distinctive combination of global perspective and political pragmatism left an enduring mark. His journey from a concerned young samurai in Shimonoseki to Japan’s first prime minister began with the insights expressed in that remarkable letter—a testament to how vision, when combined with action, can help transform nations.