Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, population management has been a critical factor influencing the country’s economy, society, and environment. But what if the visionary scholar who foresaw the dangers of unchecked population growth had never existed? What if strict birth control policies had never been implemented?

Without population regulation, China’s cities would be bursting at the seams, its resources stretched beyond capacity, and its public services under immense pressure. Environmental pollution, resource scarcity, and social instability would be inevitable consequences.

The Man Who Saw It Coming: Ma Yinchu

Ma Yinchu, born in the late Qing Dynasty, witnessed a turbulent China marked by wars, famine, and economic hardship. Having studied and conducted research both domestically and abroad, he became acutely aware of the dangers of unchecked population growth. His field investigations in North China and the Southwest during the 1930s provided him with firsthand knowledge of the economic difficulties caused by overpopulation.

Ma Yinchu argued, “If population growth is left uncontrolled, it will inevitably lead to resource depletion, environmental degradation, and social turmoil.” His studies revealed a direct correlation between population, resources, and productivity, forming the basis of his later theories that would guide China’s population policies.

A Growing Population Crisis

In the early years of the People’s Republic, China faced the dual challenges of economic recovery and improving living standards. The population, about 500 million in the 1950s, surged rapidly to 600 million in the 1960s, with an annual growth rate of approximately 2%. Though local governments experimented with rudimentary birth control measures, a systematic national approach was lacking.

With the economic reforms of the late 20th century, policymakers revisited Ma Yinchu’s warnings. The urgency of population control became evident, leading to the implementation of family planning policies, which played a crucial role in ensuring sustainable development. By the 1990s, these policies were fully established, integrating international best practices into China’s approach to population management.

What If There Was No Family Planning?

Had China not introduced birth control measures, the consequences would have been profound:

• Population Explosion: At a continued 2% annual growth rate, China’s population could have surpassed 20 billion today, making governance and resource distribution nearly impossible.
• Resource Depletion: Rapid population growth would have led to severe shortages of arable land, freshwater, and energy. Even in the 1960s, land resources were already reaching their limits in some areas.
• Environmental Catastrophe: Overcrowded cities would suffer from extreme air pollution, traffic congestion, and housing crises, worsening quality of life.
• Public Service Collapse: Healthcare, education, social security, and housing infrastructure would struggle to meet demand, exacerbating inequality and regional disparities.
• Social Unrest: Overpopulation would lead to widespread poverty, unemployment, and increased crime, threatening national stability.

The Lasting Impact of Population Policies

While China’s birth control policies have sparked debates on ethical and social implications, they undeniably helped shape the country’s economic rise. With a controlled population, China was able to allocate resources more efficiently, build a robust economy, and improve living standards.

Today, China faces new demographic challenges, such as an aging population and workforce shortages, prompting adjustments to previous policies. However, Ma Yinchu’s insights remain relevant as China continues to balance population growth with sustainable development.