The Precarious Peace Negotiations

In the late 16th century, the Ming dynasty faced a critical dilemma in its dealings with Japan. Despite the Japanese forces still occupying Korea’s coastal regions, Ming officials sought a negotiated peace to compel their withdrawal. Key figures like Minister of War Shi Xing and military leaders such as Li Rusong and Gu Yangqian advocated for compromise, even concealing Japan’s aggressive demands—including a proposed marriage alliance—from the imperial court. However, opposition grew as factions within the Ming government questioned Japan’s sincerity.

The debate reached a boiling point in 1594 when Xu Fuyuan, the Fujian governor, submitted a memorial (Qing Jichu Wochou Shu) urging the Wanli Emperor to reject Japan’s requests. His argument hinged on intelligence gathered through an elaborate spy network, revealing Japan’s continued military preparations despite peace overtures.

Xu Fuyuan’s Espionage Campaign

Appointed governor in 1592, Xu Fuyuan took a proactive stance against Japan. When the Ministry of War proposed sending agents to gather intelligence, Xu handpicked Shi Shiyong, a capable operative, and disguised him as a merchant. Accompanied by Fujianese traders—many of whom were covert agents—Shi infiltrated Japan’s Satsuma domain in 1593.

A critical asset in this operation was Xu Yihou, a Chinese expatriate serving as a physician to the Satsuma daimyo Shimazu Yoshihisa. Xu Yihou had previously warned Ming officials of Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s invasion plans. Through his connections, Shi Shiyong accessed sensitive information about Japan’s military activities, including shipbuilding and troop mobilizations.

The Intelligence That Shaped Policy

The spies uncovered alarming details:
1. Hideyoshi’s ambition to dominate East Asia, evidenced by massive naval construction.
2. Internal dissent among Japanese warlords, particularly Shimazu Yoshihisa’s resentment toward Hideyoshi.
3. Japanese efforts to exploit trade with Portugal and Spain to gather intelligence on Ming defenses.

Xu Fuyuan’s report emphasized that Japan’s peace offers were a ruse. Hideyoshi, he argued, sought to legitimize his conquests through Ming recognition while preparing for further aggression. This intelligence convinced the Wanli Emperor to reject Japan’s demands, derailing the pro-peace faction’s agenda.

The Failed Counterintelligence Plot

Xu Fuyuan also attempted to turn Shimazu Yoshihisa against Hideyoshi, offering Ming support for a rebellion. However, the plan collapsed when Xu was reassigned, and his successor showed little interest. Meanwhile, Hideyoshi’s own spies infiltrated Ming operations, exposing the limits of Xu’s strategy.

Legacy and Historical Significance

Xu Fuyuan’s espionage efforts underscored the Ming dynasty’s reliance on covert operations to navigate complex diplomatic crises. While his intelligence prevented a disastrous peace treaty, the eventual breakdown of negotiations led to renewed conflict. The episode highlights the intricate interplay of diplomacy, deception, and military posturing in late 16th-century East Asia.

The Ming-Japan intelligence war also reveals broader themes: the challenges of cross-cultural espionage, the fragility of alliances, and the high stakes of imperial decision-making. Xu Fuyuan’s operations remain a testament to the enduring role of clandestine tactics in shaping history.