A Kingdom on the Brink

The summer of 1788 brought catastrophe to France. On July 13, violent storms and unprecedented hailstorms ravaged northern France, killing people and livestock while destroying crops across thousands of square miles. This disaster followed a spring drought that had already parched farmlands, leaving even unaffected regions with meager harvests. The crisis was nationwide in scope – an ominous sign for a monarchy already weakened by years of economic instability.

These natural disasters compounded France’s existing financial troubles. Since Louis XVI’s accession in 1774, wild fluctuations in grain, fodder, and wine production had repeatedly caused social unrest. Even good harvests failed to restore stability. The 1785 bumper crop had led to cheap, abundant grain the following year, but Finance Minister Calonne’s decision to deregulate grain trade – one of the few reforms not opposed by the educated classes – meant surplus stocks were exhausted by 1787. When Jacques Necker returned as finance minister in August 1788, he immediately reinstated controls, but the damage was irreversible. Grain prices began their relentless climb, reaching by July 1789 their highest levels since the reign of Louis XIV.

The Human Toll of Economic Collapse

For most French citizens living on wages, the skyrocketing cost of bread spelled disaster. In normal times, urban artisans spent one-third to half their income on bread; landless agricultural laborers often spent more. By spring 1789, even the fortunate were spending two-thirds of their income on bread, while the poorest devoted nearly all their earnings to this basic staple. With nothing left for other food, heating, or lighting, survival became precarious even for those still employed despite frozen rivers, blocked roads, and shuttered mills.

The Duke of Dorset reported from Paris on January 8, 1789: “The miseries of the poor during this rigorous season are not to be described.” The economic crisis rippled through society as reduced consumer spending caused industrial production to plummet by 50% in some regions. Textile centers like Rouen, Lyon, and Nîmes saw warehouses overflowing with unsold goods. Lyon’s silk industry alone left 20,000-30,000 workers jobless. Rural cottage industries, traditionally a crucial supplement to farm incomes, collapsed as markets disappeared.

Political Unrest Amid Economic Despair

Public anger focused on two targets: new industrial technologies seen as threatening traditional livelihoods, and the 1786 Eden Agreement that opened French markets to British manufacturers. While British imports couldn’t be blamed for all of France’s industrial woes, their visible presence exacerbated the crisis and gave workers another reason to distrust their government.

Against this backdrop, political tensions reached a boiling point. Parisians celebrated Necker’s return with weeks of festivities that turned increasingly violent. Crowds burned effigies of his predecessor, forced passersby to bow to statues of Henry IV, and attacked symbols of authority like guard posts and officials’ residences. The recall of the exiled Parlement in late September brought matters to a head. Necker, aware that nothing would please the public more than overturning his predecessors’ policies, fully restored the Parlement’s powers. On September 24, the Parlement reopened amid demonstrations, immediately banning further unrest while announcing judicial inquiries into government actions.

The Fateful Call for the Estates-General

All parlements quickly registered the decree convening the Estates-General, which they had demanded for over a year. But Parisian magistrates grew suspicious when the decree omitted details about the assembly’s organization. Many feared the crown sought to create a docile body like the provincial assemblies. The Parlement insisted the Estates-General follow its 1614 precedent – meeting in three separate chambers representing clergy, nobility, and commoners, voting by order rather than by head.

This 1614 model would give the first two estates disproportionate influence, allowing them to outvote the Third Estate despite representing a tiny fraction of the population. The revelation shocked many who had advocated for the Estates-General without understanding its antiquated structure. Meanwhile, newer provincial assemblies and the revived Dauphiné estates had doubled Third Estate representation and voted by head – creating a stark contrast between reformist and traditional models.

The Battle Over Representation

As public debate intensified in late 1788, a national consensus emerged supporting doubled Third Estate representation and voting by head. The “Society of Thirty,” an influential club of liberal nobles and bourgeois, spearheaded a propaganda campaign through pamphlets and petitions. Their efforts portrayed the 1614 model as an aristocratic plot to suppress the Third Estate.

Abbé Sieyès’ “What Is the Third Estate?” became the manifesto of the movement, arguing that the privileged orders were parasitic usurpers with no legitimate place in a well-ordered nation. By December 1788, over 800 petitions demanded equal representation. When the Assembly of Notables convened on November 6, it found itself outpaced by public opinion. Despite efforts by the king’s brothers to sway the assembly, only 33 notables supported doubling the Third Estate, while 111 opposed it.

Royal Intervention and Rising Tensions

On December 27, Necker announced the royal decision to double Third Estate representation while deferring the voting method question to the Estates-General itself. This compromise pleased no one completely but marked a victory for public pressure. However, it left the fundamental issue unresolved as elections began in early 1789 amid worsening conditions – a winter of unprecedented cold, continued grain shortages, and rising bread prices.

Elections unfolded against a backdrop of widespread unrest. Market riots and attacks on suspected grain hoarders became common. In Marseille, concerned property owners seized control of city government on March 23, forming a “Patriotic Guard” that would become a national model. The April 28 “Réveillon riots” in Paris saw thousands of workers protest rumored wage cuts, leaving 25 dead after troops fired on crowds.

The Estates-General Convenes

When the Estates-General finally opened at Versailles on May 5, 1789, the ceremonial splendor masked deep divisions. Necker’s three-hour speech disappointed hopes by avoiding contentious issues. The fundamental question remained: would the estates verify their credentials separately (implying continued division) or together (suggesting unity)?

The Third Estate, now calling itself the “Commons,” refused to organize separately. On June 10, Sieyès proposed inviting the other estates to joint verification, threatening to proceed unilaterally if they refused. When the clergy and nobility failed to respond by June 12, the Commons began verifying its own members’ credentials – the first revolutionary act.

The National Assembly is Born

On June 17, the Commons took the decisive step of declaring themselves the National Assembly, asserting sovereignty over taxation. Three days later, finding their meeting hall locked (ostensibly for royal preparations), they gathered in a nearby tennis court and swore not to disband until France had a constitution.

The royal session on June 23 saw Louis XVI reject the Assembly’s claims while offering significant reforms: no taxation without consent, abolition of arbitrary imprisonment and serfdom, and provincial estates. But his insistence on maintaining estate distinctions and veto power over reforms proved unacceptable. When ordered to disperse, the Assembly defiantly remained, with Mirabeau famously declaring they would leave only at bayonet point.

Revolution in the Streets

As political deadlock continued, Paris exploded. News of Necker’s dismissal on July 11 triggered massive protests. Crowds raided armories and on July 14 stormed the Bastille – both a practical search for weapons and a symbolic attack on arbitrary power. The king’s subsequent withdrawal of troops marked the collapse of royal authority. The National Assembly had survived its first major test, saved by popular uprising.

The events of May-July 1789 transformed France’s political landscape. What began as a fiscal crisis had become a revolution, with sovereignty shifting from monarch to nation. The old regime’s inability to address either economic distress or political aspirations had sealed its fate. As the duc de La Rochefoucauld reportedly told Louis XVI: this was no mere revolt – it was revolution.