The Cracks in the Russian Empire

The final year of the 19th century found the Russian Empire at a crossroads. The economic boom driven by Finance Minister Sergei Witte’s policies had ground to a halt, plunging the nation into recession. This economic stagnation exposed deep-seated social tensions that had been simmering beneath the surface of imperial Russia. Across all strata of society, discontent grew like a gathering storm, with protest movements erupting throughout the vast empire.

Students emerged as the vanguard of dissent. The educated youth, chafing under the constraints of autocratic rule, initiated what would become a nationwide wave of protests. The spark came in March 1899 when police violently suppressed a demonstration at St. Petersburg Imperial University. Outraged students launched a strike on March 7 (February 23 by the old Russian calendar), which quickly spread to 17 higher education institutions in the capital and eventually across the country.

The Government’s Heavy-Handed Response

Faced with growing unrest, the Russian government implemented harsh measures on August 10 (July 29). The new regulations mandated punitive military conscription for students expelled due to protest activities. This draconian policy was first applied during protests at Kiev Imperial University in late 1900. When the list of 183 conscripted students was published on January 24 (11), 1901, it triggered a new wave of nationwide student strikes.

The situation escalated dramatically on February 27 (14) when Education Minister Nikolay Bogolepov was assassinated by a student recently returned from Germany. This marked the resurgence of political terrorism not seen since the 1880s. Tsar Nicholas II responded by appointing former War Minister Pyotr Vannovsky as the new education minister, signaling the regime’s intention to maintain order through force.

The Rise of Opposition Movements

While student protests captured public attention, organized political opposition remained fragmented. The Social Democrats had made an early attempt at organization with their founding congress in 1898, but authorities quickly arrested all participants, leaving only the manifesto drafted by “legal Marxist” Pyotr Struve as evidence of their ambitions.

By early 1901, exiled leaders including Georgi Plekhanov, Vladimir Lenin, and Julius Martov began publishing the illegal newspaper Iskra (The Spark), smuggled into Russia from abroad. Meanwhile, the Narodnik tradition revived with the formation of the Socialist Revolutionary Party in late 1901, which openly embraced terrorism and agrarian socialism as tactics. Ironically, one of its leaders, Yevno Azef, was later revealed to be a police informant.

Liberal opposition lagged behind these radical groups. Not until June 1902 did Struve and others launch the journal Osvobozhdenie (Liberation) from Stuttgart, Germany, raising the banner of radical liberalism.

The Tolstoy Controversy and Escalating Protests

1901 witnessed further escalation. On February 24 (11), the Holy Synod excommunicated Leo Tolstoy, provoking massive demonstrations the following day when thousands of students marched through Moscow, cheering the celebrated author as he appeared in public. The protests reached a climax on March 17 (4) outside Kazan Cathedral on St. Petersburg’s Nevsky Prospect, where students and intellectuals demonstrated against the trial of Bogolepov’s assassin. Cossack troops dispersed the crowd violently, leaving four dead and over a thousand arrested.

Finnish Resistance and Imperial Crisis

The unrest spread to the empire’s periphery when Finns rose up against perceived violations of their autonomy. On July 12 (June 29), 1901, Governor-General Nikolai Bobrikov implemented a new conscription law that Finns believed violated their constitutional rights. By September 30, they had gathered 473,363 signatures – nearly one-fifth of Finland’s population – on a petition demanding the law’s repeal.

These events revealed the Russian Empire as a polity in profound crisis, with discontent spreading from students to national minorities, and from urban intellectuals to rural populations.

Japanese Perspectives on Russia’s Turmoil

As Russia descended into turmoil, Japan watched with keen interest. Several significant books about Russia appeared in Japan during 1901-1902, reflecting and shaping Japanese elite perceptions of their northern neighbor.

In February 1901, Tokyo Senmon Gakko (later Waseda University) published the first volume of its historical series – a Russian history by Yamamoto Kikio. Drawing heavily on French historian Alfred Rambaud’s work, Yamamoto focused on Russia’s revolutionary potential, dedicating significant attention to Alexander II’s assassination and the revolutionary movement.

Another important translation appeared in June 1901 – Anatole Leroy-Beaulieu’s The Russian Empire. The preface by Japanese diplomat Hayashi Tadasu emphasized the need for balanced understanding, criticizing both those who underestimated Russia and those who feared it excessively. The book’s central metaphor portrayed Russia as Janus-faced – simultaneously looking east and west, combining youthful vigor with aging decay.

Perhaps most revealing was Uchida Ryohei’s The Doomed Russian Empire, published in September 1901 (and immediately banned). Uchida, founder of the Black Dragon Society, argued that Russia was on the brink of revolution and collapse. His radical thesis suggested Japan should actively support Russian revolutionaries and even consider war to hasten the empire’s demise.

Diplomatic Maneuvers: Japan’s Russia Policy

Against this backdrop of growing tensions, Japan made significant diplomatic appointments. In 1901, Kurino Shinichiro became Japan’s new minister to Russia. A Harvard-educated diplomat with pro-Russian leanings, Kurino represented the faction advocating cooperation with Russia against what he saw as British attempts to manipulate Japan.

Before accepting the post, Kurino submitted a lengthy memorandum outlining his views. He argued that Russian expansionism stemmed from geographic necessity rather than inherent aggression, and proposed a spheres-of-influence agreement where Japan would dominate Korea while Russia held sway in Manchuria. Remarkably, he even suggested Japan might concede a Russian naval base in southern Korea under certain conditions.

Kurino’s appointment was welcomed by Russian diplomats, who saw him as sympathetic to their position. However, historical evidence suggests Japanese leaders, particularly Prime Minister Katsura Taro and Foreign Minister Komura Jutaro, may have appointed Kurino precisely to demonstrate their good faith before inevitable conflict.

The Gathering Storm

As 1901 drew to a close, two significant journeys began. Kurino departed for his new post in St. Petersburg via Paris, while statesman Ito Hirobumi traveled to America to receive an honorary degree from Yale University. At the urging of fellow elder statesman Inoue Kaoru, Ito planned to continue to Russia for unofficial talks about a possible bilateral agreement.

This period (1900-1902) represents a critical juncture in both Russian and Japanese history. For Russia, it marked the acceleration of revolutionary forces that would eventually topple the Romanov dynasty. For Japan, it was a time of intense debate about how to handle the Russian threat – whether through accommodation or confrontation. The decisions made during these years would set the stage for the Russo-Japanese War and fundamentally reshape the balance of power in Northeast Asia.

The contrasting Japanese views of Russia – as either a decaying empire ripe for revolution or a formidable adversary requiring careful diplomacy – reflected the complex realities of an empire simultaneously powerful and vulnerable, whose internal contradictions would soon explode into full-scale revolution.