The Rise of a Controversial Visionary

In the early 20th century, Norman Angell, a Paris-based editor for Britain’s Daily Mail, became an unlikely intellectual sensation. His 1910 book, The Great Illusion, argued that war had become economically irrational in an interconnected world. Angell, a self-made man who had worked as a rancher, ditch-digger, and postal worker in California before returning to Europe, posited that nations were now so interdependent that aggression would harm the aggressor as much as the victim. “The era of progress through force is over,” he declared. “The future belongs to progress through ideas.”

Yet history would soon mock his optimism. By 1914, the very politicians who had praised Angell’s work plunged Europe into World War I, a conflict that would claim 15 million lives. The following decades saw even greater carnage: civil wars, World War II, and ideological struggles that pushed the global death toll toward 100 million. Angell, who continued writing for another 40 years, never fully reconciled his vision with reality.

The Fragility of Peace: A Century of Contradictions

Angell’s central thesis—that economic interdependence would deter war—was both prophetic and tragically naive. The 20th century became what historian Eric Hobsbawm called “the age of extremes,” witnessing unprecedented violence alongside remarkable prosperity. By 2010, global violence had declined to historic lows, lifespans had doubled, and incomes had quadrupled since 1910. Yet this progress emerged only after two world wars and countless smaller conflicts.

The outbreak of World War I, often attributed to a cascade of accidents—Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s assassination, bungled security, and miscommunication—masked a deeper truth. European leaders in 1914 were not passive victims of circumstance but active participants who calculated that war was their least bad option. As Winston Churchill later reflected, nations were like celestial bodies, drawn into collision by forces beyond any one leader’s control.

The Collapse of the “World Police”

Britain’s pre-1914 dominance as the global enforcer of trade and stability unraveled under the weight of its own success. Industrialization spread, eroding Britain’s economic supremacy. By the 1920s, burdened by debt and unable to maintain its navy, Britain could no longer act as the world’s policeman. The League of Nations, envisioned as a collective security alternative, proved powerless without American participation.

The interwar years saw a retreat into protectionism and isolationism, culminating in the Great Depression. Without a stabilizing force, nations turned to militarism and aggression. Japan’s invasion of Manchuria, Italy’s conquest of Ethiopia, and Germany’s rearmament went unchallenged, setting the stage for World War II.

The Nuclear Dilemma and Cold War Stalemate

World War II’s aftermath saw the emergence of two rival superpowers: the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The atomic bomb, used decisively in 1945, introduced a terrifying paradox: it made total war unwinnable. The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) froze direct conflict but fueled proxy wars in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan.

The Cold War’s closest brush with catastrophe came in 1983, when Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov chose not to report a false nuclear alert. His decision averted what could have been civilization’s end. By the 1990s, the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving the U.S. as the sole superpower—yet one increasingly reluctant to police the world alone.

Legacy: Angell’s Paradox Revisited

Norman Angell’s vision was both right and wrong. Economic interdependence did not prevent war, but it ultimately made large-scale conflict between major powers self-destructive. The 20th century’s bloodshed gave way to a fragile but enduring peace among industrialized nations. Yet as Angell himself might caution, this peace rests on institutions, deterrence, and luck—not inevitability.

The challenge for the 21st century is whether globalization’s bonds can withstand rising nationalism, resource competition, and technological disruption. Angell’s “great illusion” endures: the belief that humanity has outgrown war. The reality, as the past century showed, is far more complicated.