The Precarious State of Germany’s War Economy

By the autumn of 1916, Germany found itself in a dire economic predicament. The Allied naval blockade had strangled the nation’s access to crucial resources, creating severe food shortages that threatened to undermine the war effort. The German High Command recognized that without immediate action, the home front might collapse before the military front. Their solution came through the conquest of Romania in fall 1916 – a military victory of limited strategic value but enormous economic significance.

Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg revealed the true importance of this campaign when he told an American journalist in December 1916 that the Romanian operation had eliminated “all dangers that might have arisen from food shortages.” This statement, while diplomatic in tone, exposed Germany’s desperate reality. The country’s grain reserves could no longer sustain both the military and civilian populations. The resources extracted from Romania amounted to 6% of Germany’s annual grain harvest – the difference between starvation and survival.

The Turnip Winter: A Nation on the Brink

The winter of 1916-1917 became known as the “Turnip Winter” (Steckrübenwinter) as this humble root vegetable became the primary sustenance for most Germans. Official rations provided just 1,000 calories per day – down from 2,240 calories earlier in the war and a peacetime average of 3,400 calories. The situation grew so desperate that:

– Potato supplies decreased by 95 million hundredweight compared to previous years
– Farmers circumvented price controls by shifting production from regulated goods to unregulated ones
– The government ordered the slaughter of 2 million pigs (the infamous “Schweinemord”) in a failed attempt to stabilize meat prices

As the War Food Office implemented rationing, a vast black market emerged where those with means could obtain scarce goods at exorbitant prices. This underground economy eroded both social cohesion and respect for law, as even government agencies resorted to illegal transactions to feed the army.

The Eastern Strategy: Bread Over Bullets

Faced with catastrophic food shortages, Germany’s military strategy underwent a fundamental shift. The High Command abandoned previous war plans to focus on securing resources from Eastern Europe. This pivot culminated in the 1918 “Bread Peace” (Brotfrieden) with Ukraine, explicitly designed to extract agricultural supplies.

The British blockade had achieved one of its primary strategic objectives – diverting German forces eastward to relieve pressure on the Western Front. As historian Hew Strachan observed, “The economic pressure exerted by the Allies only demonstrated its full destructive power in 1917-1918.” Germany’s own economic warfare through unrestricted submarine warfare backfired spectacularly, worsening rather than alleviating domestic shortages.

The Financial House of Cards

Germany’s economic woes extended beyond food supplies. The nation’s financial system proved woefully inadequate for prolonged total war:

– The initial war chest of 205 million marks (leftover from the 1871 Franco-Prussian War) covered just two days of wartime expenditures
– Only 14% of war costs came from taxes (compared to 28% in Britain)
– Nine war bond issues created massive public debt while tying the middle class’s fortunes to military victory

By war’s end, Germany’s debt had multiplied thirtyfold to 150 billion marks, with currency circulation quintupled and the mark’s value halved against major currencies. The financial reckoning had been postponed but not avoided.

The Domino Effect Across Europe

Germany’s crisis mirrored broader continental collapse:

– Austria-Hungary: Emperor Franz Joseph’s death in November 1916 removed a unifying figure as the Dual Monarchy faced severe food shortages
– Russia: Military collapse and the February Revolution stemmed partly from soldiers (mostly peasants) deserting en masse
– France: The failed Nivelle Offensive sparked widespread mutinies in 1917
– Italy: The Caporetto disaster saw 650,000 casualties (mostly prisoners) in late 1917

The Legacy of Economic Warfare

The Turnip Winter and its aftermath demonstrated several enduring lessons:

1. Modern industrial nations proved vulnerable to economic blockade in ways pre-war planners hadn’t anticipated
2. Total war required total economic mobilization, exposing weaknesses in Germany’s federal financial structure
3. Civilian morale became as crucial as military strength in protracted conflicts
4. Short-term economic fixes (like war bonds) could create long-term political constraints
5. The blurring of military and economic targets presaged 20th century “total war” doctrine

Germany’s experience during 1916-1917 revealed the fragile foundations of its war effort. The desperate measures taken to stave off collapse – from the Romanian campaign to the Bread Peace – bought time but couldn’t alter the fundamental imbalance of resources. The Turnip Winter became both symbol and symptom of a war economy pushed beyond its limits, with consequences that would extend far beyond the armistice of 1918.